Hello everyone,
Another severe day passes in July and surprisingly another presents itself only a few days later. The storm prediction center in Norman has issued a Day 3 slight risk for the northern half of Iowa into Minnesota. The probability is a 30% hatched risk. This is significant as day 3 outlooks rarely have such high probabilities. This means SPC is very confident in a severe weather outbreak in this area.
Currently the threat looks marginal to me. The upper level winds are just passed borderline, low level wind shear is not all that great, a strong cap appears to dominate, and high lcl heights look to be present. At this moment I would say the tornado threat looks poor. Large hail and damaging winds from higher based supercells and a squall line are much more likely.
Tomorrow's model runs will clear things up, I am happy to see SPC did not upgrade the day 2 risk to moderate as the models do not support this.
Another post will come late tomorrow night.
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